2025/04/05

Are There Any True Tariff Shelters Left?

Practical Investment Analysis for the New Energy Economy

Are There Any True Tariff Shelters Left?

Alex Koyfman | Apr 05, 2025

Dear Reader,

The tariff wars have begun and everyone’s feeling it.

The Dow’s down 6% over the last two days. The Nasdaq, almost 9%.

But here’s the strange thing… Bitcoin, which has always been seen as a hedge against mainstream instability, is also down — close to 5% since April 2nd.

bbr megatrends trump

It’s what the next generation of investors, not to mention much of the current generation, has always seen as insulation against all of the macroeconomic ills which one day could come home to roost in your 401K, or savings account, or stock portfolio.

That’s a major shift in perceptions, and it goes hand in hand with another shift — the one which continues to keep the world’s oldest hedge against instability very close if not at all time record highs.

Microsoft Goes Nuclear

Microsoft is building its own nuclear power plants to power its AI ambitions. And for investors, this is a massive opportunity.

Because one little-known company will deliver the nuclear fuel for these reactors.

And it's set to rake in BILLIONS as a result.

Most people have no idea this company even exists. That’s why shares are still cheap.

Get the full story here.

Gold... Eight Millenia And Counting

While the rest of the world watches on as their wealth takes a major beating in the first panicky days of Trump’s latest magnum opus, precious metals investors are putting their money back into the tried and true.

And they’re doing it even at damned close to all time record highs.

Gold has traded higher than this once, all the way back in the first week of the 1980s, when it spiked to $850 for a period of days.

Adjusted for inflation, that’s $3450, or about $250 higher than where we were trading at all time highs last week.

Nevertheless, we’re still 40% above where we were just 2 years ago and 8% higher than where we were just a month ago. That’s far more than what we can say for the rest of the market.

Gold may not go down below $3000 for years, or ever, or it could happen in the next month depending on what the rest of the market does.

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But Is it Still Just A Hedge?

Determining which scenario plays out is impossible right now, but the chances of it continuing to rise despite all the action over the last 18 months, however, is statistically lower now than it has been at any point in the last 40 years.

Still, investors are buying. They're watching the price tick into new territory because they still think it's going higher, which begs the question: is it still a hedge at all or a speculative play?

Well, regardless of what you call it, buying high and expecting more of the same is dangerous.

45 years ago, when we saw all time highs, the next thing that happened was a bottoming out of the market that went on for almost two decades.

gold price

Investors hedging with gold back then would have lost half their wealth and not recovered it until the early 2000s — and that’s without adjusting for inflation.

That’s the reality of gold. It too, despite all the hype, isn’t as bulletproof as you’re being led to believe.

But there is another precious metal that may just be.

Silver’s inflation adjusted prices, unlike gold’s, have been almost stagnant for the last 20 years.

The Most Wanted Metal In the World

And because of this stability, the silver:gold price ratio, which has hovered between 1:50 and 1:70 for most of human history, is now at 1:100.

That makes its risk, relative to gold and even more so relative to the rest of the market, far lower.

Yes, it’s less mobile, less talked about, less shiny, and because of all that, far more boring.

It is exactly what hedge-seeking investors want.

For those who want to hunker down and weather this thing, and maybe even make a little profit in the process, silver might just be your best bet right now.

silverenduse7/20

It’s universally valued in the form of jewelry, coinage, flatware, and now because of its unique conductive properties, it’s becoming one of the most important raw material for the tech industry as well.

It's Everywhere. Demand is Rising. Prices Aren't

There simply is no drawback to investing in silver in the $30 range… The only real problem is choosing your approach.

The choices are abundant.

There are big miners and small miners, ETFs and certificates, but there is one producer that stands out from all of them.

This company isn’t so much a miner, but as a silver extraction company, possessing a technology that gives it access to silver nobody else can touch.

With gold at $3k, this company also has never had better margins.

At a time like this, it might be the most out-of-the box silver bet out there, anywhere.

There’s a lot to this story, but the bottom line is this: at a time in history when silver may be the most reliable hedge investment available, this company has the exclusive ability to tap into billions of dollars of previously inaccessible metal.

Get the full details, right here.

But don't wait. This market may not see a bottom for some time. Instead of enduring the pain, find out the single best way to leverage it.

Fortune favors the bold,

alex koyfman Signature

Alex Koyfman

P.S. Trump’s bold plan to abolish the IRS could pocket you BILLIONS. Trump’s latest move could rewrite the tax code — and potentially put billions back into the hands of everyday Americans. His bold new plan to abolish the IRS and replace it with a National Investment Fund is set to unleash over $1 trillion in direct payouts. Learn more about how you could claim up to $21,307 before the first checks go out.

Check us out on YouTube!

His flagship service, Microcap Insider, provides market-beating insights into some of the fastest moving, highest profit-potential companies available for public trading on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges. With more than 5 years of track record to back it up, Microcap Insider is the choice for the growth-minded investor. Alex contributes his thoughts and insights regularly to Energy and Capital. To learn more about Alex, click here.

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Conquering the Market's Greatest Enemy

AN OXFORD CLUB PUBLICATION

Loyal reader since May 2022

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Conquering the Market's Greatest Enemy

Keith Kaplan, CEO, TradeSmith

The first quarter of 2025 is behind us, and so far, this market has been tough to navigate.

Markets are evolving, but this year has introduced a wave of unprecedented uncertainty, leaving investors searching for stability.

Uncertainty is the market's greatest enemy, triggering volatility and knee-jerk reactions.

We saw that in the third quarter of 2024. Right before the election, the CBOE Volatility Index was soaring, investor sentiment was tentative at best, and we weren't sure if the Fed would surprise us with rate cut news (again).

But as soon as those unknowns disappeared, the market charged forward with a voracity we hadn't seen in months.

That's the power of knowledge to soothe that fear of the unknown.

Now we're facing a new series of unknowns that have spun the market into a panic: tariffs and trade war threats, stagflation fears, and concerns over the strength of the AI trade. Major indexes have fallen into correction territory, and there's no sign of things calming down soon.

We'll have to wait for some of 2025's big unknowns to play out on their own. But here at TradeSmith, we aren't panicking - we're ready to take on the market as it comes.

Because we have recently made the biggest breakthrough in our history...

We have uncovered a way to solve one of the biggest unknowns in trading: the absolute best times of year to buy and sell any asset...

And it's all based on measurable, tangible patterns.

Let me show you how...

Time to Plant Our Investments

To the naked eye, stocks seem to trade erratically, whipping upward one day only to plummet the next - even after good news.

But there are stocks that trade so consistently - rising (or falling) sharply during specific windows of time, year after year - that you can map out an entire year of great trades right now.

It's not unlike how farmers make their plans for the year. They don't know if it'll rain or snow next Wednesday, nor can they assume that every field they plant will produce a healthy crop.

But farmers do know when to plant for the best results, which (here in the Northern Hemisphere) is in spring.

This is a dependable seasonal pattern in nature that humans have used to our advantage for thousands of years... without knowing the first thing about Earth's orbit.

With only a glance at their calendars, farmers get to work prepping and planting their fields from March to May, tending the crops from June to August, then harvesting in September to November, depending on the crop.

In fact, farmers behave this way so reliably that it creates a specific cycle in agricultural prices. Every year when it's time to harvest, there will be downward pressure on the price of those crops, since supply will at least temporarily be greater than demand.

Just as dependably, stocks go through seasonal cycles, too - and like farmers, you can learn the best time to buy or sell any given stock, down to the very day you should place the order.

It's all thanks to our unique market analysis tool. It's a simple but powerful system that displays consistent historical patterns coming up for any asset in the TradeSmith database.

It's called the TradeSmith Seasonality Tool, and I believe it could be the biggest breakthrough in our 20-year history.

And with a new earnings season practically on our doorstep, a whole new slew of cycles is about to begin...

Make a Data-Driven Decision

Take Netflix (NFLX), for example.

The popular streaming stock tends to climb dramatically starting in January. That's the first seasonal window highlighted here in green on our TradeSmith Seasonality chart...

Chart: Seasonal chart for Netflix (NFLX)

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Then - after a springtime lull - it jumps from early May until mid-July. That's the second seasonal window, bordered in blue.

Why is January to April such a great time for Netflix? And why does it perk back up in the summer? Maybe it's the earnings reports... although those have been a mixed bag for the past few years. Perhaps Netflix has been releasing hot new shows early in the year or gets a bump from students going on summer vacation?

We can't always say why, but the why doesn't necessarily matter.

Instead, we can simply recognize that the stock price has risen 18%, on average, between May 8 and July 12 every single year during the past 15 years... and draw our own conclusions about the stock.

Will it play out the same way in 2025? There are never any guarantees. But it is encouraging to know that the stock's January-to-April bullish seasonal pattern played out as predicted with stunning accuracy, as you can see in the blue line on the chart above. The stock went up 23.3% from the start of the window to the peak.

And Netflix's summertime bullish seasonal pattern has a 100% track record of success.

Let's look at another example: Boston-based Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX).

Vertex is also looking like a good buy in the spring and summer; it already passed through two bullish seasonal windows earlier this year, with returns of 5.4% from January 1-21 and a gain of 5.2% from February 17 to March 4.

And Vertex tends to climb 8.8%, on average, from June 11 to July 21 - with an 80%-plus track record of gains during all three of these periods. In fact, the stock seems to be highly seasonal in how it trades, with several high-probability patterns playing out throughout the year, including one bearish pattern in mid-September:

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Really, I could go on all day showing you different seasonal patterns in various stocks.

With a quick TradeSmith screener for seasonality, I was able to find 43 of them with a high-probability bullish pattern starting between April and June, each averaging 10% to 20% gains in those first couple of months.

But I share this data just to show you how you can plan your trades on any stock... down to the day.

See, most people who recognize the power of seasonality can't get that specific about it. They can show you which sectors tend to perform best in the summer or the winter, sure, and they can attempt to explain why so you'll feel confident in their conclusion.

Even when you can plot out a whole year's worth of seasonality, as we do at TradeSmith, some days are still far better than others. We highlight those days for you as the green zones you saw on my charts here today.

And I don't mind telling you that this could be the biggest breakthrough we've ever had at TradeSmith.

This can allow us to recommend trades in 2025 (and beyond) more confidently than ever before - because we know which stocks will offer us high-probability trades months ahead of time.

On Tuesday, April 8, at 1 p.m. ET, I'll show you everything I can about this strategy and how we will use it to find you the most reliable stocks to trade... on their very best days of the year.

Click here to register to attend and learn more about these new seasonality signals - our major breakthrough - and try the tool for yourself, 100% free.

All the best,

Keith Kaplan
CEO, TradeSmith